On June 16th, the 77th annual Tony Awards will be awarded (and televised on CBS). The ceremony this year is at Lincoln Center for the first time and American Express will be holding a live simulcast at Damrosch Park just behind the David H. Koch Theatre where the awards will be given out (see here for more information about how to attend if this interests you). Two years ago I was fortunate enough to be able to attend the 75th annual Tonys in person at Radio City (see how I wrote up the experience here) but this year I will be watching on television as usual. The awards this year seem harder than ever to predict this very crowded season. Needless to say, with so many new productions, not everything could be nominated, and most musicals and plays rely on the publicity and the “stamp of approval” from the Tonys to fuel sales.

Best New Musical

This was an unusually busy season for new musicals on Broadway, which is great for musical lovers – but very tough on producers as there was a lot of competition for the ticket-buying public. Six new musicals have already opened and closed this season:  Once Upon a One More Time, Here Lies Love, How to Dance in Ohio, Harmony, Lempicka, and Days of Wine and Roses. From earlier this season, only Back to The Future (which opened last July) is still running, with most new musicals on Broadway having opened in a very busy spring season. So the eligible original musicals were Back to the Future, Days of Wine and Roses, Harmony, Hell’s Kitchen, Here Lies Love, How to Dance in Ohio, Illinoise, Lempicka, Once Upon a One More Time, Suffs, The Great Gatsby, The Heart of Rock and Roll, The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants. I saw all of them, and correctly predicted which five would be nominated (which is not the same as saying I agreed with the result). The five are:

“Hell’s Kitchen”

“Illinoise”

“The Outsiders”

“Suffs”

“Water for Elephants”

I have to say, this is a year where any one of these could win. The best reviewed by the New York Times were Illinoise, Hell’s Kitchen, and Water for Elephants (all “Critic’s Picks”) but Suffs and The Outsiders are both nominated for best original score as well as best new musical. Illinoise has had perhaps the most rave reviews across the board, but since it is a very unique Broadway musical (the story being told entirely through Justin Peck’s dance and a group of instrumentalists and singers, all based on Sufjan Stevens’ 2005 album) it may be hard for Tony voters to award it best in this category (although I expect it will get best choreography) when it is not nominated for Book or Score. However, Hell’s Kitchen had the most nominations (13; tied with the new play Stereophonic in number of nominations this year).

Best Musical Revival

The eligible musical revivals were Cabaret, Gutenberg, Merrily We Roll Along, Spamalot, The Who’s Tommy, and The Wiz. Only four were nominated:

“Cabaret”

“Gutenberg! The Musical!”

“Merrily We Roll Along”

“The Who’s Tommy”

This category definitely comes down to two productions, the transfer from the West End of Rebecca Frecknall’s Cabaret, starring Eddie Redmayne, and the smash hit revival of Merrily We Roll Along, a musical once felt to be Sondheim’s great flop, but transformed by the direction of Maria Friedman and the performances by Jonathan Groff, Daniel Radcliffe, and Lindsay Mendez. The Cabaret revival has not been received as well on Broadway as it was on the West End, so I would expect Merrily to take this award. The same goes for Leading Actor in a Musical – I would be surprised (and very very disappointed) if Jonathan Groff does not win this category over Eddie Redmayne. I love The Who’s Tommy, by the way, but don’t expect it to win.

Best New Play

The nominees for best new play are:

“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”

“Mary Jane”

“Mother Play”

“Prayer for the French Republic”

“Stereophonic”

I will be very surprised if Stereophonic doesn’t win this category. It’s a “play with music” (and in fact, it is nominated for best original score, which is unusual but not without precedent) by David Adjmi, about a rock band in the 1970s recording an album. It’s over three hours long, takes place entirely in a recording studio with no change of sets, and yet is completely riveting.

Best Play Revival

All three of the nominees for best revival of a play are excellent. They are:

“Appropriate”

“An Enemy of the People”

“Purlie Victorious”

Despite the strength of all three of these revivals, I would be surprised if Appropriate did not win this category (and I think Sarah Paulsen is a lock for Best Lead Actress in a Play despite being up against Jessica Lange in Mother Play).

Other thoughts

This season not only had a great number and variety of new productions, there were many extremely innovative sets. The category of best scenic design of a musical had seven nominees (for The Outsiders, Hell’s Kitchen, Back to the Future, Lempicka, Water for Elephants, Here Lies Love, and Cabaret) and I was dazzled by all of them. I think the immersive quality of Here Lies Love, which has closed but I absolutely adored, was a stand out in a great field for me – but it is very unusual for shows that have closed to win even if nominated (Here Lies Love is also up for best original score, best choreography, and best sound design).

A shout out to the Director categories this year, with four out of the five musical directors and three out of the five play directors being women.

After the Tonys, I expect many shows with disappointing results will post closing notices, either right away or as the summer ends. Tony awards do not guarantee a long run (look at A Strange Loop from 2022) but the lack of awards can be the difference between enough ticket sales to keep going and a decision to close the show. What will keep Broadway alive is not only a wealth of plays and musicals in the pipeline but also the ticket-buying public out there to support them. Go see a Broadway show (or a ton of them!) and keep this very special art form thriving here in New York City.